Japan Ditches US Debts, Trillions Unwanted
It can truly be said that when the tree falls, the monkeys scatter, and when the wall collapses, everyone pushes it! Recently, Canada and Europe, as allies of the United States, have turned ahead of schedule to start lowering interest rates. This is undoubtedly a blatant betrayal for the United States, which is currently in an interest rate hiking cycle.
However, what was unexpected was that when the United States was preoccupied with its own affairs, Japan suddenly took action. Not only did it sell a large amount of dollars to rescue the yen, but it also started to sell U.S. debt, with the scale reaching around 50 billion U.S. dollars. Is Japan going to gamble on its national fortune again? The betrayal of Europe and the actions of Japan, does this mean that the United States' harvesting plan has completely failed? Is the post-dollar era coming quickly?
The U.S.-European alliance is only superficially united.
Whether Japan has rescued and how Japan has rescued, with the recent announcement of Japan's foreign exchange reserves, the final mystery has finally been revealed. That is, between Japan and the United States, Japan has once again chosen to gamble on its national fortune by going against the higher-ups.
Recently, according to the information data released by the relevant Japanese Ministry of Finance, Japan's foreign exchange reserves experienced a significant decline in May, falling to 123.15 trillion yen, and compared to April, it fell by 47.4 billion U.S. dollars, with a drop of 3.7%. What is more interesting is that the balance of foreign bonds held by Japan fell to 927.5 billion U.S. dollars, which is 50.47 billion U.S. dollars less than in April. The drop is even more significant, reaching 5.2%.
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What we need to know here is that most of the foreign exchange reserves held by Japan are actually bonds and other assets, and these bonds are basically U.S. debt.
Last month, when the yen fell sharply, the Bank of Japan took out nearly 9 trillion yen for market rescue, and the scale was also about 60 billion U.S. dollars.
Here, a very obvious situation will arise, that is, in times of crisis, Japan not only resists the United States' harvesting but may also be selling U.S. debt to the United States to exert pressure, while using the dollars obtained from selling U.S. debt to speculate against Wall Street's short-selling capital.This is not just about wearing confrontation on one's face; it's about having betrayal written all over it. After all, for the United States now, the most critical issue is to have other countries purchase U.S. Treasury bonds to prolong America's lifeline while also helping to alleviate its debt pressure. Now, it turns out that Japan is not only resisting but also stabbing in the back.
Moreover, the essence of the U.S. targeting the Japanese yen is actually to reenact the Southeast Asian crisis of the past. Hence, we observe that immediately after the yen hit a new low, there was an Asian currency crisis defense battle, with Vietnam, Indonesia, and others bringing out their heavy artillery, using gold to bolster their currencies.
After Japan's intervention, we have rarely seen such a crisis in Asian currencies recently. Therefore, we can understand that the essence of the U.S.'s actions is not what it seems; it appears to target Japan, but in reality, it aims to use Japan as a stepping stone to drag the entire Asia into the water.
After all, everyone knows that Japan remains the world's fifth-largest settlement currency, and Japan is also known as a "great whale" in the financial sector. Moreover, the financing, loans, and corporate investments in Southeast Asia and other Asian countries are mostly dominated by the yen. This is why we can understand why the U.S. wants Japan to shift towards interest rate hikes and target the yen.
Because Japan's interest rate hike can instantly increase Asia's financing costs, and the plummeting yen will inevitably have a significant impact on Asian manufacturing countries. Moreover, the exchange rates of many countries are not only pegged to the U.S. dollar but also to a basket of currencies including the dollar and yen, which will lead to the devaluation of other countries' currencies.
However, we have seen the outcome later on; the U.S.'s final effort was in vain because, while Japan verbally followed, it actually stabbed the U.S. in the back. Now, it will be even more challenging for the U.S. to completely harvest because Europe, a mainstream global settlement currency, has already cut interest rates, Canada has also cut interest rates, and even the UK has indicated that it may cut interest rates in August. This means that the entire situation of the U.S.'s interest rate blockade has completely failed.
Because we know that although the U.S. dollar is the mainstream global settlement currency, its current share in international trade is only about 47%, and the other 53% of currencies have cut interest rates, making the U.S. the minority.
Moreover, the most important point is that the proportion of U.S. dollar settlements in international trade is decreasing, and the BRICS countries are rapidly promoting settlements in their own currencies. Most crucially, Saudi Arabia, the cornerstone of petrodollars, has recently joined the digital currency bridge, opening the door to diversified settlement of oil.
The post-dollar era is coming.
The gold dollar was the beginning of the United States, and the petrodollar was the peak of the dollar's hegemony. Now, the gold dollar is no longer, and the petrodollar is disintegrating; the end of the dollar's hegemony is approaching.The United States has long divided the world through the dollar system, with the country being a global financial nation and the world's largest consumerist nation. Meanwhile, the euro, pound, and yen resemble branches that the United States has set up around the world, distributing dollars and gaining certain benefits in the process.
Originally, the Federal Reserve should have been the first to lower interest rates, followed by gradual rate cuts in Europe and Japan, allowing the Fed to release ample liquidity to Wall Street to buy goods globally and complete the harvest. However, this time, European and other countries have cooperated with the United States to raise the global debt cost, but it is the United States' allies who are reaping the benefits.
After all, the Federal Reserve is still hesitating whether to lower interest rates. Although the recent non-farm data and CPI data released in the United States are better than expected, at a recent meeting, Powell suddenly stated that some data in the United States has a lot of water, implying employment data.
All of this indicates one point, that is, Biden wants to use interest rate hikes to hold on for a while longer and harvest more, but Powell knows how serious the crisis inside is.
Moreover, during the vacuum period formed by the United States' withdrawal of funds, the scale of RMB settlement has expanded rapidly. Now, with Saudi Arabia's move, it directly announces that it will no longer use the dollar as the most important trade currency for reserves. After all, the most important oil for economic development can be purchased with other currencies.
Since China is the largest trading partner and the oil industry no longer uses the dollar for settlement, what is the significance of using and holding dollars?
Moreover, the United States' trade share now only accounts for nearly 10% of the global share, and the rest is mostly financial transactions. However, for the current world, trade is the most fundamental existence. Even if the two are added together, their share is far less than the dollar settlement share.
Therefore, in the past, the scarcity of oil made the dollar more valuable, but in the future, the dollar will be re-priced. Moreover, the United States is bound to fail in this harvest, and the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts may not be far off.